2020-11-14 22:31:20新冠疫情面临明显挑战,好日子继续 Despite the obvious challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, investors have led a reasonably charmed life this year. And with negative real interest rates, generous monetary and fiscal policies, the remarkable rebound in the economy and corporate earnings, and the inevitable defeat of COVID-19, the good times are expected to continue next year.
2020-11-14 22:26:09
美股与基本面脱离
The lower the discount rate, the higher the present value of the future cash flows
Plainly, the lower the rate, the higher the asset’s value.
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2020-11-14 22:26:09美股与基本面脱离 The lower the discount rate, the higher the present value of the future cash flows Plainly, the lower the rate, the higher the asset’s value.[回 复]
2020-11-14 22:18:46美股与基本面脱离 贴现率 Most of us learned that the intrinsic value of almost any investment asset (i.e., stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) is simply the present value of the future cash flows discounted at the discount rate. The lower the discount rate, the higher the present value of the future cash flows. Plainly, the lower the rate, the higher the asset’s value. The Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate is 0%-0.25%, and inflation remains mostly absent. You can’t get much lower than zero. So, what’s the value of an investment asset when the discount rate is zero? This has led some market watchers to describe the current environment as the “everything bubble.” The logic suggests that when the discount rate is zero, all risk assets are in a bubble.[回 复]
2020-11-14 22:13:16美国联邦政府债务,占GDP The US national debt is now more than $27 trillion. It will surpass the $30 trillion threshold by the end of 2021. At the turn of the century, the US national debt to GDP ratio was 56%. Today, it’s more than 137%. In early September, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected a federal budget deficit of $3.3 trillion for 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019. It’s the largest deficit relative to GDP since 1945. Regardless of November’s election outcome, most observers expect Congress to pass another roughly $2 trillion pandemic relief bill. That will push next year’s federal budget deficit to more than $4 trillion. [回 复]